Liverpool go into Sunday’s Premier League showdown with Manchester City as slight favourites, according to Opta’s prediction model, even after a season that has lacked consistency.
The Opta supercomputer rates Liverpool’s chances of winning at Anfield at 43%, with City given a 30.3% likelihood, while a draw stands at 26.7%.
That confidence isn’t based on emotion, but on long-standing patterns that tend to favour Liverpool when this fixture is played on Merseyside.
Anfield history still favours Liverpool
Liverpool have been beaten just once in their last 22 Premier League home matches against Manchester City, winning 14 and drawing seven during that spell.
That solitary loss came in February 2021, the only time City have ever won a league game at Anfield — and it happened behind closed doors while Liverpool were reigning champions.
That history still counts, especially with Pep Guardiola’s team once again heading to a stadium that has rarely been kind to them.
Erling Haaland, now 25, has also failed to score in any of his three Premier League away games against Liverpool.
Anfield is one of only two venues in the league where the Norwegian has played without finding the net, reinforcing the idea that City’s firepower doesn’t always click here.
Former Liverpool forward Peter Crouch also expects little between the sides, predicting a goal-filled draw and tipping Hugo Ekitike to score first while speaking on That Peter Crouch Podcast.
Form points to a tougher Liverpool
Manchester City’s challenge could be made harder by the possible absence of Bernardo Silva, with Guardiola revealing the midfielder is an “incredible doubt” due to a back muscle issue.
While Liverpool’s campaign has had its ups and downs, the overall direction since mid-October has been one of control rather than decline.
From matchday 13 onward, no Premier League team has lost fewer matches than Liverpool, with Arne Slot’s side suffering just one defeat in their last 12 league games.
That toughness was on display in the recent 4–1 victory over Newcastle United, where Liverpool bounced back from an early scare to dominate with their attacking quality.
Florian Wirtz is growing more influential by the week, and Hugo Ekitike has become increasingly clinical in front of goal.
Since December, Wirtz has been involved in more goals than any other Premier League player across all competitions, while Ekitike has reached double figures in league goals at a younger age than any Liverpool player since Michael Owen.
Those attacking strides are important, particularly against a City side that has yet to score a second-half league goal in 2026 and has looked vulnerable after the interval.
City remain a top team and sit above Liverpool in the table, but they are six points behind Arsenal and under pressure to keep up.
Liverpool, meanwhile, come into the game with confidence growing, a formidable Anfield record in this fixture, and the numbers to justify Opta’s backing.
Nothing is guaranteed on Sunday, but it helps explain why optimism is quietly building ahead of one of the Premier League’s highest rivalries. 🔴⚽
