There’s a growing sense that Sunday’s meeting at Old Trafford is more about not losing than going all out to win, and the latest data hints at how things could unfold for Liverpool.
Although both teams are aiming to secure Champions League qualification, the situation isn’t quite as straightforward as it looks, given how the league table is currently shaping up.
Opta Analyst suggests Liverpool head into the game at a slight disadvantage. Their data-driven preview points to a very evenly matched contest, with no clear favourite emerging. In fact, the numbers indicate that Manchester United vs Liverpool is the fixture most likely to end in a draw this weekend, highlighting just how little separates the two sides.
Jamie Carragher has also predicted a stalemate, reflecting a wider feeling that this is one of the least high-pressure encounters between the clubs in recent years.
Still, when it comes to outright win probability, the advantage leans towards the hosts. Opta Analyst gives United a 42.8% chance of victory—which would complete a league double—while Liverpool are assigned a 30.5% chance, influenced by United’s recent form and Liverpool’s struggles against top opposition.
That said, Liverpool can take encouragement from their recent record at Old Trafford, having won three of their last five league visits there—matching their total from the previous 18 trips combined.
Perhaps the most notable takeaway is the likelihood of a draw, estimated at 26.7%, making it the most probable outcome across this weekend’s fixtures.
This aligns with recent performances. Despite Arne Slot’s side winning three games in a row, displays haven’t always been convincing, particularly against top-tier teams.
There’s also some uncertainty surrounding Mohamed Salah, who was forced off against Crystal Palace, although the club expects him back before the season ends. If he misses out, it would deny him another opportunity to extend his outstanding scoring record away to United—already the best in Premier League history.
All things considered, this looks like a match where caution could dominate, making a draw not only likely, but perhaps the most sensible prediction.
