Bournemouth’s draw with Manchester City has created a remarkable situation in the battle for fifth place: the final Champions League spot could, in an extraordinary set of circumstances, be decided by a play-off.
The result at the Vitality Stadium also confirmed Arsenal as Premier League champions for the first time in over two decades, and left City four points off the pace with one game to play. But beyond the title narrative, a quieter but significant subplot has developed in the race for European qualification.
Bournemouth remain three points behind Liverpool going into the final round of fixtures. To leapfrog them, Andoni Iraola’s side would need to beat Nottingham Forest at the City Ground and hope Liverpool slip up at home to Brentford — a scenario that, given current form, is not entirely out of the question. Liverpool have taken just one point from their last three games, while Bournemouth have gone unbeaten in five, only denied a win against City by Erling Haaland’s injury-time equaliser.
Goal difference remains a significant hurdle for Bournemouth, however. Liverpool’s superior tally means the Cherries would need a swing of roughly seven goals to overhaul them — even a 4-0 Bournemouth win combined with a 2-0 Liverpool defeat would leave the Merseyside club ahead.
That said, Opta’s Football Editor Michael Reid has identified one highly specific sequence of results that would leave the two sides completely inseparable: a 5-0 Bournemouth win and a 1-0 Liverpool defeat would see the clubs level on points, goal difference, and goals scored. Head-to-head records and away goals in those meetings would also fail to split them, potentially triggering a play-off to determine who finishes fifth — one of the more extraordinary possibilities in recent Premier League history. Interestingly, Bournemouth beat Forest 5-0 last season — the precise scoreline they would need.
The situation reflects a difficult season for Liverpool overall. They have won just 17 of 37 league matches, lost 12, and made early exits from both domestic cups and the Champions League. Reports suggest FSG are not planning to remove Arne Slot, but a string of poor results, a public social media post from Mohamed Salah questioning the club’s direction, and a 4-2 defeat to Aston Villa have kept speculation about his future alive. Should Bournemouth somehow complete the turnaround on Sunday, that pressure would grow considerably.
